Over the xmas break, we, I and some friends, tried to evaluate the current political situation in Pakistan, objectively. Our knowledge was based upon news reports, political history of Pakistan since the day we understand it, and our own opinions. We tried not to side with any party, before we reached a conclusion.
Objectivity here, of course, is debatable, as different factors hold different significance for different people.
Following is what we came up with:
In Punjab, PML(N) getting a lof of people back from PML(Q), is again going to get the lion’s share with losing some seats to PTI. But those seats lost to PTI will now be filled by PML(Q) returnees. PPP, loosing a big number of seats to PTI and PML(N/Q), because of the current government policies, is gonna get a lesser number as compared to last election. PTI is probably going to win 10-15 seats which will not be sufficient to make any difference. All this means is situation stays more or less same in Punjab, with PML(N) making a coalation goverment with PPP.
In Sindh, PPP, despite such a poor performance, is going to rule over rural Sindh, with MQM winning in Karachi/Hyder Abad. PTI, again, is going to get 5-7 seats, along with ANP. With Jamat Islami (JI), and other religious parties (RPs), seats staying almost at the same number, we dont see much changing in Sindh as well; a PPP lead government in coalation with MQM.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), ANP is going to lose big time. One of the major factors for ANP’s win in last elections was absence of MMA. So people didnt have much choice. Althgouh MMA is no longer there; the parties that constituted MMA will be back this time taking lion’s share of votes, with JI coming back to lime light. PTI is also going to get some seats in KP, but those seats again will not be enough to make any significant difference to equation. PPP, as ANP, is also going to lose a big number of seats. These seats are going to get distributed between JI, other RPs and PML(N) in majority, with few going to PTI. So its quite possible to have a PML(N)/JI/Other RPs colation government in KP as well.
In Balochistan, in last election, PPP and PML(Q) were the front runners with a big number of Independent Candidates (ICs). This time, PPP is out. A big number of PML(Q) guys are gonna join PML(N). JI/RPs are also gonna come back. PTI doesnt seem to get anything in Balochistan. So again, its going to be a coalation government with PML(N)/JI/RPs and ICs.
With these stats in provincial assemblies, PML(N) in coalation with JI/RPs is going to be in government in at least 3 provinces, namely Punjab, KP and Balochistan and PPP in coalation with MQM is going to be in goverment in Sindh.
If we take the same figures to National Assembly, as PPP is going to lose a big number of votes, those votes will go to PTI and PML(N). PML(N) will also lose a good number to PTI, but that gap will be filled in by PPP votes and PML(Q) returnees. So PML(N) still has chances to be the major party, but it will still lack simple majority. Again it will be a coalation government with JI/RPs and PPP will sit on opposition benches with PTI.
This coming election was again going to be a PML(N) favoured election as 1997 untill PTI emerged. Although PTI is not going to get anything significant, but it surely is going to mess things up big time, as no major party is going to get simple majority, and with coalation goverments in all provinces and in the capital, decision making will be even more challenging.
PML(N) is not going to get a simple majority anywhere, but they probably are the best bet to get their PM elected, with probable government in 3 provinces and a significant majority in National Assembly.
You of course have the right to disagree, and your feedback is always welcome 
A very well though out and structured analysis Shaibi. However it missed one very important factor of Pakistan’s politics which is kinship and patronage. The article is giving an overall impression that the voters in Pakistan vote for political parties which is not fully true. While this might be true for the bulk of urban population, the majority of voters live in rural areas and they don’t care much about the parties. They vote for someone who does stuff for them or is from the same clan irrespective of whether he/she is in PML(N/Q) or PPP.
I will highly recommend the following book for you if you really want to get an in-depth understanding of how Pakistani politics and elections work.
This was an overall comment on the article. Apart from this comment, each single paragraph of yours is interesting and needs a separate comment. I will resist the temptation and will just give a few…
1. I agree about the hung parliament thing but I personally see PTI as part of it. There are very strong indications that establishment is thinking on these lines for the next setup and Khan sb now has the silent support from west with him too. In my analysis, he is going to make the government with MQM, JUI, ANP, and PML(Q). He has already made a deal with MQM and they are pretty much on the same side now in peace and harmony. He might break some winners from PPP and PMLN.
2. In Baluchistan, JI doesn’t have any vote bank. JUI has their traditional vote bank in pushtun areas which they will retain. For most of the seats, they will go as independent or with the party in strong position. Votes are not ideological there except for the ones for JUI.
3. In Punjab, PTI and PMLN will equally do good and both will be in a position to form government with jor tor. What matters is who can offer what to all those who are coming as independent on on kinship/clan basis.
4. Sindh is again either Bhutto or the strong individuals. There are less indications up-till now that some non-PP will be able to grab the non–bhutto-committed influentials.
And you know my comment cannot conclude without the saying that whatever the outcome will be of this election, no real change can come from within the system
.. Its a hard fact. The system is so messed up with the establishment, bureaucracy, media, thana-kacheri and landlords that even a parliament of angels cannot bring any real change for economy, foreign policy, taxation (specially agriculture) and education system. The real change needs a complete overhaul and can ONLY and ONLY come from Islam. There is no khair except the complete (not partial) system coming from Islam. And Allah knows the best.
Thanks for such a detailed analysis
I only want to express my fear for disaster if Imran Khan makes the government as you suggested, with MQM, JUI, ANP, and PML(Q). He is only going to prove himself a janasheen of Musharraf.
And I fully agree with your concluding comment. You cannot change the system as long as you are part of the system. And democracy is a recipe for disaster for a country like ours. Islam is our only cure. May Allah help us.
Nice Analysis Shaibee and Umair but you guys are forgetting the power of establishment in this country. Establishment that includes Military, Bureaucracy, American influence and other such powers. Majority of elections in the history of Pakistan have been rigged and this one won’t be an exception in my opinion.
I believe that establishment wants PTI to succeed this time and success means success at Federal level plus success at atleast one provincial assembly which would be Punjab most probably.
The democracy can go on for rounds and rounds but as you guys already said, true system is the only God-made system we all adore and long for. Let’s hope that somehow, true Islamic system starts prevailing in the world. Ameen.