Over the xmas break, we, I and some friends, tried to evaluate the current political situation in Pakistan, objectively. Our knowledge was based upon news reports, political history of Pakistan since the day we understand it, and our own opinions. We tried not to side with any party, before we reached a conclusion.
Objectivity here, of course, is debatable, as different factors hold different significance for different people.
Following is what we came up with:
In Punjab, PML(N) getting a lof of people back from PML(Q), is again going to get the lion’s share with losing some seats to PTI. But those seats lost to PTI will now be filled by PML(Q) returnees. PPP, loosing a big number of seats to PTI and PML(N/Q), because of the current government policies, is gonna get a lesser number as compared to last election. PTI is probably going to win 10-15 seats which will not be sufficient to make any difference. All this means is situation stays more or less same in Punjab, with PML(N) making a coalation goverment with PPP.
In Sindh, PPP, despite such a poor performance, is going to rule over rural Sindh, with MQM winning in Karachi/Hyder Abad. PTI, again, is going to get 5-7 seats, along with ANP. With Jamat Islami (JI), and other religious parties (RPs), seats staying almost at the same number, we dont see much changing in Sindh as well; a PPP lead government in coalation with MQM.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), ANP is going to lose big time. One of the major factors for ANP’s win in last elections was absence of MMA. So people didnt have much choice. Althgouh MMA is no longer there; the parties that constituted MMA will be back this time taking lion’s share of votes, with JI coming back to lime light. PTI is also going to get some seats in KP, but those seats again will not be enough to make any significant difference to equation. PPP, as ANP, is also going to lose a big number of seats. These seats are going to get distributed between JI, other RPs and PML(N) in majority, with few going to PTI. So its quite possible to have a PML(N)/JI/Other RPs colation government in KP as well.
In Balochistan, in last election, PPP and PML(Q) were the front runners with a big number of Independent Candidates (ICs). This time, PPP is out. A big number of PML(Q) guys are gonna join PML(N). JI/RPs are also gonna come back. PTI doesnt seem to get anything in Balochistan. So again, its going to be a coalation government with PML(N)/JI/RPs and ICs.
With these stats in provincial assemblies, PML(N) in coalation with JI/RPs is going to be in government in at least 3 provinces, namely Punjab, KP and Balochistan and PPP in coalation with MQM is going to be in goverment in Sindh.
If we take the same figures to National Assembly, as PPP is going to lose a big number of votes, those votes will go to PTI and PML(N). PML(N) will also lose a good number to PTI, but that gap will be filled in by PPP votes and PML(Q) returnees. So PML(N) still has chances to be the major party, but it will still lack simple majority. Again it will be a coalation government with JI/RPs and PPP will sit on opposition benches with PTI.
This coming election was again going to be a PML(N) favoured election as 1997 untill PTI emerged. Although PTI is not going to get anything significant, but it surely is going to mess things up big time, as no major party is going to get simple majority, and with coalation goverments in all provinces and in the capital, decision making will be even more challenging.
PML(N) is not going to get a simple majority anywhere, but they probably are the best bet to get their PM elected, with probable government in 3 provinces and a significant majority in National Assembly.
You of course have the right to disagree, and your feedback is always welcome 
